Simplicity, With Complications

Joe Biden has an opinion on whether he should stay in the race. Ben Franklin said, "The older I get, the less certain I am of my own opinions."

Biden should listen to Franklin, and therefore listen to others, preferably outside his bubble. Let's take an honest look at his "bad" debate performance. He stood there with his mouth agape, eyes darting around, unable to speak in complete sentences, often trailing off, looking confused, unable to complete his thoughts, even failing to mention his strongest points in his closing statement.

He actually spoke substantively, and mostly clear at his press conference, but we can't unsee what we saw. 

His excuses after the debate, goodness what a mess. He was sick. He needs to start going to bed earlier. He traveled abroad two weeks prior and wasn't well-rested... after a week at Camp David preparing for the debate. When has a serious presidential candidate ever made such ridiculous excuses?

Did you see the clip of Jill Biden at the rally after the debate talking to the president as if he were a child? "Joe, you did such a great job answering EVERY question!" 

This is the guy who's going to save our democracy? I desperately want him to win over Trump, but he won't.

Hmmm, wait a second. I'm getting older too, and I just said that Biden won't win. Is that true, or is that simply my own opinion that I shouldn't trust? Let's look at some of the facts. Tell me if I'm wrong.

Seventy percent of the country now questions Biden's basic capacity to handle the job, versus 50% for Trump. I can't explain that low score for Trump, but it's true, and Democrats need to admit that it's true. They act as if if they will win if they just band together like the Republicans, but they forget the crucial detail that 27% of voters are registered Democrat, 27% are registered Republican, and 43% are registered Independent. Democrats can band together all they want and it will be decided by Independents (plus others in the middle), and voter motivation. Did that performance motivate anybody?

There's evidence that the country is being run well, and some of this mess is simply due to the perception of Biden during the debate. Don't forget though that even a perception of feebleness translates into the reality of lower voter motivation.

Some Senate Democrats are facing an uphill battle toward re-election, Tester in Montana and Brown in Ohio to name two in red states, but nine of the ten Senate races that are expected to be the closest are currently held by Democrats or Independents who vote with Democrats. Recent polls show that even the deep blue state of New York is approaching battleground status. A weak presidential candidate could cause a generational Senate wipeout.

Recent polls have also showed Biden 6% under Trump nationally, and in the last two presidential elections Trump outperformed the polls by 2%. In 2016 it was enough, and in 2020 it wasn't. If Biden beats the odds and scratches himself out of the coffin to make it back to even, he's still effectively 2% under.

The Economist's prediction model gives Trump a 3 in 4 chance of winning.

The attack ads write themselves, and they will work. The debate itself functioned as an hour and a half Republican attack ad, free of charge. Biden's own ads are working as Republican attack ads, because they are obviously cut to make him seem clear, competent, and strong, the exact opposite of what everybody saw.

So anyway, no, I don't know who's going to win, but all evidence and rationality points in the same direction when we look at the situation with our eyes wide open. Biden should drop out. 

The pollster Nate Silver even said Biden should resign because of his demonstrated lack of command of some of the issues. I agree.

Biden's answer to George Stephanopoulos on what he will think in January if it comes to pass that Trump won should be disqualifying in itself.

"I'll feel as long as I gave it my all and I did the goodest job as I know I can do, that's what this is about."

Is that really what this is about, how good he feels afterward? Maybe that's the lack of command Nate Silver mentioned? Maybe we can do even do more goodest than Biden? Maybe his campaign catchphrase should be- "VOTE BIDEN - I'LL FEEL GREAT IF I LOST BECAUSE I TRIED MY BEST." 

Who cares if he's okay with it. That might have been the worst answer to any question in the history of politics. (Okay, maybe that's hyperbole, maybe the worst answer in the history of politics was when Trump just shrugged when asked if he would pledge to support NATO.)

I love what Jon Stewart said about Biden's ridiculous post-election outlook. “There are no participation trophies in endgame democracy. Oh, yes, I remember FDR saying, ‘If the Nazis take over Europe, at least both teams had fun.’”

What should our answer be if we press for him to drop out, and the person who replaces him loses? Well at least we gave ourselves a chance! Or maybe even- It will never happen, we will win! 

Sure, we can't know, but between you and I, feigning certainty is a motivational force!

If it does come to pass that Trump wins, afterward Democrats will wonder why, but they are currently sacrificing their chance for a viable candidate because of their stubbornness that Biden should win, overlooking the fact that it seems increasingly unlikely. 

Many Democrats are afraid though. Many have a defeatist head-in-the-sand approach to the Biden Problem, trying to wish into existence some political truism that says since Trump is a convicted felon, he is unelectable. Pure nonsense, but there are many True Believers who try to laugh-emoji you into silence if you disagree. All they need to do is open their eyes, look at a poll, and see that Trump is very electable. 

Some convince themselves that since he should win it, he will win. More nonsense.

In Understanding History, Bertrand Russell said, “The universe is what it is, not what I choose that it should be."

Some who accept the situation as it is, still hang their heads and ask, "But if not Biden, then who?"

Well another recent poll showed Harris 2% above Trump. 

Trump has mostly laid off Biden, and has started attacking Harris instead. Why wouldn't he? It's obvious that he would prefer to run against a weakened Biden, so he's resisting every urge to make Biden look worse, and he has to attack someone. 

Right-wingers are haunting the comment sections of news articles on whether Biden should drop out, saying that to replace him would be an affront to democracy. It's the height of irony that they're pretending to support democracy in a backhanded way of showing support for Trump.

Perhaps running the person that your opponents want to run against is a losing strategy? 

Imagine Harris debating Trump and destroying him point by point. Imagine her injection of vigor and enthusiasm. Imagine her picking Governor Shapiro as her running mate, or Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan. She'd be sealing up battlegrounds, versus creating more. She can build up the Biden administration's positive aspects and drop his baggage. She could be seen as a symbol of the country moving toward a positive future. 

Last Sunday Adam Schiff said that we should win against Trump in a blowout, adding that Harris could win in a blowout, but Biden simply can't.

We can't fake enthusiasm for a guy nobody expects to still hold the office at 86. Maybe the best strategy is to go with Harris straight out of the gate and get this job done. I know she has problems, but she doesn't have Trumph-echelon problems.

It's honorable to pass the torch, and dishonorable to stay too long due to ego, raising the risk of losing the presidency, and Congress, and digging a deeper hole with the Supreme Court. Make no mistake, Biden said he would only drop out if it was shown he couldn't win, not if it was shown that someone else was more likely to win. That's ego.

Biden's campaign bears all the hallmarks of a losing bid, and his presidency will be remembered for one disastrous decision leading to the reinstallation of Trump, versus getting rid of him in 2020.

Biden needs to put his trust in Franklin's wise words, and question his own decision, instead of waiting for an appearance of "God Almighty" coming down to tell him what to do. He needs to be responsible for his own decision, and if he chooses correctly, it will be the best decision of his life.

Let's make a change while we can, reinvigorate those in the middle who will decide the election, give a clear vision of the future, end the repeat of 2020 that nobody wants to see, and act as if the country depends on it!

July 13, 2024

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Whaaat? An assassination attempt on Trump? Political violence should be universally condemned.

July 13, 2024

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Obama, July 13, 2024- "There is absolutely no place for political violence in our democracy. Although we don’t yet know exactly what happened, we should all be relieved that former President Trump wasn’t seriously hurt, and use this moment to recommit ourselves to civility and respect in our politics. Michelle and I are wishing him a quick recovery."

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I just covered up his name and asked Emma if she knew who this was. She asked if it was my grandmother. I asked her if she thought my grandmother wore a Sex Pistols shirt to Junior High in 1982.

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Patrick Stewart was born on this day in 1940. 

Jean-Luc Picard- "It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not weakness, that is life."

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The other day I heard someone say that the Bible must be true because it's the greatest selling book in history. Imagine if the truth of your most cherished beliefs was intrinsically tied to the book sales! What if the Quran became the best-selling book? Or The God Delusion for that matter?

July 13, 2018

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You know that Siskel and Ebert hated each other's guts when they started working together? After a while they kind of started to like each other, and when referring to the other each would say, "Yeah, he's an asshole, but he's my asshole." I love that.

July 13, 2018

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At least in my top 5 favorite emails of all-time, from Emma's mom:

i have been trying to reach you for three nights now/ and you haven't answered/i brought over the garbage about 11pm last night, but your car wasn't there/ is somethiing going on? is snuggles oK? i hate to call after 1030pm in case you are going to bed early from al lthe extra work. i am going to try to call again when i get home/ if you are there , will you anser/i am actually worried. you told me both spiderman movies were on that dvd i took , but i can only see one/ ...................... 

I don't know about the rest of you, but I didn't see that surprise ending coming.

July 13, 2010

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Jean-Luc, again- "The road from legitimate suspicion to rampant paranoia is very much shorter than we think."

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Hubert Reeves, the Canadian astrophysicist was born on this day in 1932.

"Man is the most insane species. He worships an invisible God and destroys a visible Nature, unaware that this Nature he’s destroying is this God he’s worshiping.

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Harrison Ford was born on this day in 1942. Did Han shoot first? Who gives a shit. What's more important is that David Blaine scared the crap out of him in his own kitchen, pulling a dollar bill out of a piece of his fruit.

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Jean-Paul Marat left us on this day in 1793.

"Man has the right to deal with his oppressors by devouring their palpitating hearts."

WHOA!

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Another notable deathday- Frida Kahlo (1954)

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Jean-Luc, yet again- "Things are only impossible until they are not."

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National Simplicity Day

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Thoreau- "Simplify, simplify..."

I used to have a bumper sticker with that quote, on  the van that I lived in. A very simple time of my life. And in certain ways, very complicated.

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Somehow The Donnas are like 20 years old, and at the time of their first CD the first Ramones album was like 20 years old.

https://youtu.be/dyrq9gJ-Cok

July 13, 2017

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The Onion- Man Always Gets Little Rush Out Of Telling People John Lennon Beat Wife

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Edward Gordon (American painter, born 1940)

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Anthony Bourdain- "Food is not rational. Food is culture, habit, craving and identity."

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Buckminster Fuller, Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth- "You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete."

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Desiderius Erasmus- "Man's mind is so formed that it is far more susceptible to falsehood than to truth."

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Albert Camus- “Always go far, because that’s where you’ll find the truth.”

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Salman Rushdie, The Satanic Verses- "A poet's work . . . to name the unnamable, to point at frauds, to take sides, start arguments, shape the world and stop it from going to sleep."

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Henry Wadsworth Longfellow- "In character, in manner, in style, in all things, the supreme excellence is simplicity."

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Robert McNamara- "One of the lessons I learnt early on, was never say never... never, never, never... never say never. And secondly, never answer the question that is asked of you. Answer the question that you wished that was asked of you and quite frankly I follow that rule, it's a really good rule."

I think about that second rule all the time.

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Ernest Hemingway, The Old Man and the Sea- "Most people were heartless about turtles because a turtle’s heart will beat for hours after it has been cut up and butchered. But the old man thought, I have such a heart too."

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Marcel Proust- "The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes."

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E.B. White- "A writer who waits for ideal conditions under which to work will die without putting a word to paper."

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Milan Kundera, The Unbearable Lightness of Being- "In the sunset of dissolution, everything is illuminated by the aura of nostalgia, even the guillotine."

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Vladimir Nabokov- "Existence is a series of footnotes to a vast, obscure, unfinished masterpiece."

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Addendum 

Biden messes up his words, no doubt. You might have noticed! I don't think he's most likely one to beat Trump, so I think he should drop out, but if he doesn't drop out, I'm still voting on him. Take a look at this substantive answer from his press conference on Thursday. Be aware, it's boring as hell! Maybe just skim. There's only one conclusion to draw, Biden has command of foreign policy issues.

And imagine Trump's answer to the same question. I listened to about 10 hours of Bob Woodward's original audio interviews with Trump. There was a lot of stuff about North Korea and Covid. Trump wouldn't stop talking about his love letters with Kim Jong Un, and the fact that he's smiling in his pictures with Trump. He mentioned those details like 20 times. Trump kept bringing up the fact that he called him "Little Rocket Man", over and over, and over and over. He said there were some very tough talk between the two of them, very tough talk. I know what he's talking about, but he wouldn't say it out loud. It's that Kim Jong Un called him a dotard. So Trump called him Little Rocket Man... foreign policy a la Trump.

There's only one conclusion to come away with, Trump does not have command of the issues. It doesn't have to do with whether you agree with him or disagree with him, it's that he doesn't understand. It would be impossible for him to answer a question as substantively as Biden did here. 

You were warned, read this whole thing at your own peril!

Q Mr. President, the NATO declaration that was issued yesterday ha- — was very notable because it described China as a “decisive enabler” of the war in Ukraine for its provision of critical goods to the Russians. That’s part of a broader partnership that seems to have cemented in place in the past two or three years. I think one that you were a little bit doubtful of when we asked you about it some time ago. 

So, I’d be interested to know whether you have a strategy now of trying to interrupt the partnership between China and Russia, and whether or not in a second term you would pursue that, if you could describe that strategy to us. 

And along the way, could you also tell us whether you think — just to follow up on Felicia’s question — that if you were in a room with Vladimir Putin, again, the way you were three years ago, or with President Xi, that a few years from now, you will be able to go negotiate with them, handle them one on one?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, the first part of your question is, we discussed and I raised in the NATO Summit — and others raised — the future of China’s involvement, what they’re going to do — what they’re doing with Russia, in terms of accommodating, facilitating. They’re — they’re getting access to additional — they’re not supplying — they’re not supplying weapons themselves; they’re supplying mechanisms for them to be able to get weapons.

And China’s position is basically — and I’ve spent more time with Xi Jinping than any world leader has — over 90 hours since being vice president and all the way through. For real. And, by the way, I handed in all my notes.

But my point is that Xi believes that China is a large enough market that they can entice any country, including European countries, to invest there in return for commitments to — from Europe to do A, B, C, or D, or not to do certain things.

What’s happened is, we had a long discussion about what we cannot — we have to make clear China has to understand that if they are supplying Russia with information and capacity, along with working with North Korea and others to help Russia in armament, that they’re not going to benefit economically as a consequence of that — by getting the kind of investment they’re looking for. 

And so, for example, we’re in a situation where when — and we’ve reestablished direct contact with China after that — remember the “balloon,” quote, unquote, going down and, all of a sudden, the thing came to an end? Well, we set up a new mechanism. There’s a direct line between Xi and me, and our military has direct access to one another, and they contact one another when we have problems.

The issue is that we have to make sure that Xi understands there’s a price to pay for undercutting both the Pacific Basin, as well as Europe, and as relates to Russia and dealing with Ukraine.

And so, we — for example, if you want to invest in China, as you know — you know this area really well. If you want to invest in China, you have to — you have a 51 percent Chinese owner; you have to make sure that you do it by their rules; and you can’t — you don’t have the authority — and you have to provide all access to all the data and information you have. 

There was a while there, as you recall, in the last administration and other administrations, where the access to that market was enticive [enticing] enough to get companies to come in because they had access to over a billion people in the mar- — a — a market — not a billion, but a lot of people in the market. And so, they were doing it. 

But that curtail — that got curtailed when we started saying we’re going to play by the same rules. 

For example, the idea they don’t abide by the international rules related to subsidizing products by the government funding. So guess what? They’re not going to be able to re- — export their electric vehicles to the United States without a significant tariff. Others are doing the same thing around the world. 

But it is a concern. It is a concern that you have both China, South Korea — I mean North Korea, Russia, Iran — countries that are not necessarily coordinated in the past — looking to figure out how they can have impact.

Q Do you have a strategy to interrupt that impact? To —

THE PRESIDENT: Yes, I do, but I’m not prepared to talk about the detail of it in public.

And I think you’ll see that some of our European friends are going to be curtailing their invol- — investment in Russia — I mean, in — excuse me, in — in China, as long as China continues to have this indirect sic- — se- — help to Russia, in terms of being able to help their economy as well as — as well as help them in — as a consequence that their ability to fight in — in — in Ukraine. 

The other thing that we talked a lot about is that — and I raised it, and there wa- — I — I didn’t hear any — I can’t swear that everyone agreed, because not everybody got to talk about it. But we haven’t — we need a new industrial policy in the West. For example, we talked about how both the EU, as well as NATO, has to be able to begin to build their own munition capacity, has to be able to generate their own capacity to provide for weapons and the ability to — it came as a surprise to some of us how we had fallen behind in the West in terms of the ability to construct new materiel, new weaponry, and new — new — everything from — from vehicles to weapon systems. 

And so, one of the things that came out of this was — we’re going to be meeting again with a number of my colleagues — my European colleagues — is: What do we do to increase the capacity of the West, and particularly in Europe, and Japan to be able to generate kind of ability to produce their own weapons systems — not just for themselves but to be able to generate that?

It’s the same — this is — that’s what Russia is trying to figure out. The- — they went to China, and they didn’t get the weapons, but then they went to North Korea. 

But we’re going to be in a position where the West is going to become the industrial base for it to be able to buil- — the — the ability to have all the defensive weapons that we need. That was a discussion as well. 

Q Mr. President, I’m not sure you answered on whether you would be ready to go deal with Putin and Xi two or three years from now.

THE PRESIDENT: I’m ready to deal with them now and three years from now.

Look, the — like I said, I’m dealing with Xi right now, in direct contact with him. 

I have no good reason to talk to Putin right now. There’s not much that he is prepared to do in terms of accommodating any change in his behavior. 

And — but there isn’t any world leader I’m not prepared to deal with. But I — I understand the generic point is: Is Putin ready to talk? I’m not ready to talk to Putin unless Putin is ready to change his be- — his behavior. 

And the idea — look, Putin has got a problem. First of all, in this war that he has supposed to have won — and, by the way, I think — don’t hold me to the exact number, but I think that Russia had 17.3 percent of — of Ukraine that they’ve conquered. Now it’s 17.4 — I mean, in terms of percentage of territory.

They’ve not been very successful. They’ve called horrible damage and loss of life. But they’ve also lost over 350,000 troops, military — killed or wounded. They have over a million people, particularly young people with technical — technical capability, leaving Russia because they see no future there. They’ve got a problem. 

But what they do have control of is they are very good at controlling and running the — the public outcry that relates to how they use mechanisms to communicate with people. They lie like hell to their constituencies. They lie like hell about what’s going on. 

And — and so, the idea that we’re going to be able to fundamentally change Russia in the near term is not likely. But one thing for certain: If we allow Russia to succeed in Ukraine, they’re not stopping at Ukraine. 

I recommend — I know you know this because you’ve — you’ve written about it — read Putin’s speech after they moved in. What it was all about — in Kyiv — it wasn’t about just — anyway, read what his objective is. 

And anyway, but — so, I — I think that I’m prepared to talk to any leader who wants to talk, including if Putin called me and he wanted to talk. 

Last time I talked to Putin was trying to get him to work on an arms control agreement related to nuclear weapons in space. That didn’t go very far. 

So, my point is: I’m prepared to talk to anybody, but I don’t see any inclination. There is an inclination on the part of the Chinese to keep in contact with me, because they’re not sure where this all goes. 

And look what’s happened in Asia. We have strengthened the Asia and the Pacific area more than anyone else has. We — you know, we just put together with — today, we — we had — we — I brought on — I asked the — our NATO Allies that we bring on the group from the South Pacific: Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Australia — I — I already mentioned Australia.

And I met twice now, I think, with the 14 leaders of the Pacific Island nations, and we’ve slowed down what’s going on there. We’ve slowed down China’s reach. 

But there’s a lot of work to do. This is a moving target. And I don’t take it lightly.

July 13, 2024