Journeys Through Disappointment and Occasional Triumph

Don't forget, the Phillies are one win from tying it up! Will they do it? I don't know. Can they? YES! 

Many have already thrown in the towel. I don't know if they are simply defeatists, or if it's just a defense mechanism. Believe me, there was a little worse than the 1993 World Series. I still have PTSD from that. I'm resisting the urge of covering myself in brambles and burrs to prevent a repeat. The Phillies are going into the same situation, down 3 games to 2 on the road. 

It's been said that to be a Phillies fan is to willfully subject yourself to torture. True!

Studs Terkel said that he wasn't an optimist, but was hopeful. That's about where I am, but I'm not a pessimist either. Amos Tversky said pessimists stand to double their displeasure, first when they assume the bad thing will happen, and second if and when it does. Neither do I have mindless faith. I don't pretend to know the future, but I do have hope.

Those who have lost hope act like they have a 0% chance to win. We saw the opposite phenomenon in 2020 when many Trump voters believed he had a 0% chance to lose. That's not even hope, that's psychopathy. And of course in 2016, many Clinton voters figured that she had 100% chance to win, even though Nate Silver only gave her about a 70% chance.

In baseball and politics, if anyone believes there is a 100% or 0% chance of something happening, they can be ignored.

Thirty percent of teams in the Phillies position have gone on to win it all. If they win tonight, the odds are cut to about 50/50. The Nationals did it in 2019. Just after losing Bryce Harper to the Phils.

In 2016, after Schwarber and the Cubs won the World Series, but before the election, Nate Silver pointed out that when they were down 3 games to 1, they had about a 15% chance of winning, the same chance that Trump had at that time. Just before the election though he surged to 30%, due to Comey's letter about Clinton. (Remember that, when Trump's enemy Comey handed the election to him???)

It's not far-fetched to believe the Phillies can win even though they only have a 30% chance. I just rolled a 20-sided die, telling myself that if it came up 1 to 6, the Phillies would win. It came up 3. If only it were that simple.

This team is resilient. A win tonight would give them the momentum going into a Game 7. In their 139-year history, the Phillies have never had a World Series Game 7. Let's hope this is the year.

The team hasn't given up hope, and I haven't either. Schwarber helped lead the Cubs to their 2016 win, and he can help lead the Phillies to their win this year. Harper has been laser-focused on this since the Nationals won just after he left. No matter what happens, they are going to grind it out to the very end. I take solace in that.

Let's do it!

November 5, 2022

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Too much stress with this Phillies game! I just ran 3 miles in an attempt to get rid of it. I had side stitches for the first mile, but just like the Phillies I pushed through it and persevered! I did stop for a minute to take a picture of a mansion near my house that reminded me of Xanadu from Citizen Kane. I'm taking that as a symbol of how the mighty can fall. I chose to run the last quarter mile uphill in communion with the Phillies and the trial they have ahead of them. Let's do this!

November 5, 2022

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There's a lot of bad information flying around. This is a good time to take some advice from Christopher Hitchens- "That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence."

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Looks like it's coming down to Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. At this point IF Trump pulls out all three, and the will of the voters was for him, he'll win. Additionally, IF at this point he has a 50% chance in each state, that's about a 12% chance overall, which coincidentally was almost exactly what people gave him going into the election. Stay tuned!

North Carolina could possibly change too, nobody knows how many more mail-in ballots are coming in.

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If I'm following the president's logic correctly, he wants to stop the count in the states where he's ahead, and continue the count in the states where he's behind. Oh, sorry, did I say logic? I meant scheme.

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There are just over 500,000 votes to count in Pennsylvania from predominantly Democratic areas, and Biden has to make up just over 100,000. That is very, very good news for Biden, and the world.

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Former Presidential nominee and ambassador to the United Nations, Adlai Stevenson: 

"We travel together, passengers on a little spaceship, dependent on its vulnerable reserves of air and soil, all committed, for our safety, to its security and peace. Preserved from annihilation only by the care, the work and the love we give our fragile craft."

Do you believe that? Of course you do.

Let's face it, that is keeping in spirit of Biden's rhetoric.

If Trump would utter such a thing, he'd turn into a pile of dust and blow away.

I also like remembering what Adlai Stevenson said to the woman who told him that every thinking person in America would vote for him. He said, "That's not enough madam, we need a majority."

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Pennsylvania still looks good for Biden, but Trump could still pull it off. Face it, he could! Pretend that he does. I just want to get some things out in the open so it wouldn't seem like sour grapes after the fact.

Fact- People are voting very disproportionately through the mail for Biden, as you would expect.

Fact- Trump's big-donor newly-appointed Postmaster General tore out high-volume sorting machine. 

Fact- Trump fought in court to keep them torn out. A judge ordered them to be put back in (you know, because of the election), but they are not that back in.

Fact- As a result, the mail was slowed down, as you would expect, disenfranchising voters who had every reason to believe their legal votes would count.

Fact- This would have the same effect as Biden sneaking disappearing ink into Trump-heavy polling places.

If we assume for the sake of argument that this happened to 100,000 votes in Pennsylvania, it looks like 80,000 Biden voters would disenfranchised. 

Under that assumption, if Biden ends up 100,000 ahead in Pennsylvania, he should have ended up 180,000 ahead. If Biden ends up 50,000 behind, the will of the voters was for him to be 30,000 up. 

Trump's intent is perfectly clear, whether he ends up ahead or behind in Pennsylvania. To correct this ill-intent, the simple answer is to accept any ballot postmarked by or on Election Day, which just happens to make sense anyway.

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What's this nonsense about the Democrats losing the Senate? Biden appears to be poised to pull ahead of Trump in Georgia, exactly where there's just going to be to runoff in January.

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Seeing Trump's lead shrink by tens of thousands elicits the opposite feeling of seeing coronavirus cases rise by tens of thousands.

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Haha! Trump said he was up by 700k votes in Pennsylvania, so he won it! Sounds like the kind of guy who would win $700 in Atlantic City, lose a billion dollars, and still think he won!

November 5, 2020

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Gore Vidal, Julian- "On the throne of the world, any delusion can become fact."

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Huh, a Democrat was just voted governor of Kentucky. Yeah, Kentucky. I wonder if that got Mitch McConnell's attention.

November 5, 2019

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I just ran two miles for the first time in months. Thoughts:

After a few hundred yards- My knees can't handle this. I should just go home. 

Halfway- Why am I doing this? What do I have to prove? Like I'm going to look like Fight Club Brad Pitt or something.

Three quarters done- I should just get fat. Who cares? My body might actually thank me.

Almost done- Haha, not so bad. I should do 12 more of those. Has anyone ever run a marathon without training? I should be the first. 

It took two miles for my mind and body to align.

November 5, 2017

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Hunter Thompson, The Proud Highway- "We are all alone, born alone, die alone, and—in spite of True Romance magazines—we shall all someday look back on our lives and see that, in spite of our company, we were alone the whole way. I do not say lonely—at least, not all the time—but essentially, and finally, alone. This is what makes your self-respect so important, and I don't see how you can respect yourself if you must look in the hearts and minds of others for your happiness.'

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Richard Dawkins- "After sleeping through a hundred million centuries we have finally opened our eyes on a sumptuous planet, sparkling with colour, bountiful with life. Within decades we must close our eyes again. Isn't it a noble, an enlightened way of spending our brief time in the sun, to work at understanding the universe and how we have come to wake up in it? This is how I answer when I am asked -- as I am surprisingly often -- why I bother to get up in the mornings."

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This little monkey turned three today.

November 5, 2016

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Great, I'm counting the hours until this election is over and tonight they tack on an extra one.

November 5, 2016

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Behold- Plato's perfect form of an apple was included in my CSA share! I nearly bit into it before I recognized its beauty.

November 5, 2015

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This little monkey is going to come live with us! It was a tough labor, and the baby's in the ICU as a precaution, but her and her mom are OK. Once we get to meet as a family we'll have a name for her.

November 5, 2013

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Congratulations Yankees, you were the better team. Thank God for good umpiring. National League Champions! We'll wake up one day closer to kicking the Mets' asses next year

November 5, 2009

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Guy Fawkes was arrested in the cellars of the Houses of Parliament on this day in 1605, where he had planted gunpowder in an attempt to blow up the building and kill King James I of England. Some have said that he's the only person in history to have gone to Parliament with honest intentions.

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Abraham Lincoln removed the incompetent George B. McClellan as commander of the Army of the Potomac on this day in 1862.

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On the same day, in Minnesota, 303 Dakota warriors were found guilty of rape and murder of whites and were sentenced to death. Thirty-eight are ultimately hanged and the others reprieved.

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Susan B. Anthony voted for the first time on this day in 1872, and was later fined $100.

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Philosopher and historian, Will Durant, was born on this day in 1885.

"Science is organized knowledge. Wisdom is organized life."

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Tatum O'Neal was born on this day in 1963. Paper Moon, one of the all-time great performances in cinema history.

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We lost Johnny Horton on this day in 1960.

We fired our cannon 'til the barrel melted down

So we grabbed an alligator and we fought another round

We filled his head with cannon balls, and powdered his behind

And when we touched the powder off the gator lost his mind

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Other notable birthdays- Art Garfunkel (1941), Sam Shepard (1943), Gram Parsons (1946)

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Taste of Cinema- 20 Great Documentaries That Will Change Your Worldview

Great list! And there are 8 I haven't seen, good news for me.

20. Hearts and Minds

19. The Bridge

18. Bowling For Columbine

17. An Open Secret (unseen)

16. Overview (unseen)

15. The Red Pill (unseen)

14. Louis and the Nazis (unseen)

13. Food Inc.

12. Manufacturing Consent

11. 13th (unseen)

10. The Hunting Ground (unseen)

9. Religulous

8. An Inconvenient Truth

7. Finding Home (unseen)

6. Lake of Fire

5. The Act of Killing

4. Titicut Follies 

3. The Corporation 

2. Child of Rage (unseen)

1. Earthlings

http://www.tasteofcinema.com/2017/20-great-documentaries-that-will-change-your-worldview/

November 5, 2017

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In honor of my daughter Gretel's 4th birthday, her favorite song.

https://youtu.be/JVj61ZX_8Cs

November 5, 2017

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Think Progress- Ivanka Trump’s shuttered business wins Chinese trademarks to voting machines

Well now that can't be true, right?

http://thinkprogress.org/ivanka-trump-business-chinese-trademarks-voting-machines-9238fe6cee16/

November 5, 2018

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The Beach Boys- Wouldn't It Be Nice

https://youtu.be/lD4sxxoJGkA

November 5, 2020

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Thomas Paine- "It is the duty of every man, as far as his ability extends, to detect and expose delusion and error." 

Reminds me of Chomsky's duty for intellectuals.

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Locke- "So that, in effect, religion, which should most distinguish us from beasts, and ought most peculiarly to elevate us, as rational creatures, above brutes, is that wherein men often appear most irrational, and more senseless than beasts themselves."

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Terkel- "People are hungry for stories. It's part of our very being. Storytelling is a form of history, of immortality too. It goes from one generation to another."

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Campbell- "Sit in a room and read--and read and read. And read the right books by the right people. Your mind is brought onto that level, and you have a nice, mild, slow-burning rapture all the time."

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Sarah Vowell- "Like Lincoln, I would like to believe the ballot is stronger than the bullet. Then again, he said that before he got shot."

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Horace- "The common people are but ill judges of a man's merits; they are slaves to fame, and their eyes are dazzled with the pomp of titles and large retinue. No wonder, then, that they bestow their honors on those who least deserve them."

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Normie- "Sex couldn't be simpler. I think there's only like five things you can do in the whole f*cking thing. You ever think you invented a sixth? Then later you go, 'Ah, in all humility, I guess that was pretty close to number five.'"