Be Positive, and Other Bodily Humors

Well look at that!

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The polls, polls, polls, polls, polls, polls, polls, what a world of merriment their melody... fortolls???

Not so fast. Take a deep breath and realize that both Biden and Trump could each win legitimately, without any voter fraud or voter suppression. One hundred percent of us need to accept that as a starting point.

It's true that Nate Silver has Biden winning in 90% of his election simulations based on the aggregate of current polling. (The Economist has him at 96%.) Ten percent for Trump is nothing to scoff at, even though it would eclipse the biggest polling average error ever if he would pull it off.

Here's the thing though... polls are generally based on likely voters, and with the upsurge in new and sporadic voters this time, the polls could be wildly off... in either direction. Trump could get 300 electoral votes, Biden could get 450. 

I don't think the polls are correct. Up until today if I was forced to bet my house, I would have put it on Biden. Right now I think I would bet it on Trump winning. 

Fun fact: When people are asked this, 90% of the time they pick their preferred candidate... like they are trying to will it into reality.

Un-fun facts: A quarter to a third of all the attendees at Trump rallies didn't vote last time around. I believe that Republicans lead in new voter sign-ups since the last election. Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail, but in early voting they only have a tiny advantage in key battlegrounds.

My intuition- Trump has a 60% chance, Biden 40%.

Stay tuned! (AND VOTE!) We'll soon know who's the next president is, but more importantly we will also know who we are.

November 2, 2020

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Michael Cohen alleges that Trump said that black people are too stupid to vote for him. Maybe Trump did and maybe he didn't, but here's a thought experiment for everybody. Imagine that you knew on good information that one of two tapes was going to come out tomorrow- a tape of those actual words coming out of Trump's mouth, or a tape of Michael Cohen telling somebody that he was going to plant this false story. Who would you bet on?

November 2, 2018

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The next time I make a valid point against Trump and someone asks, "but what about Obama?," I'm going to ask "well what about Nixon?" 

They'll ask, "Well what about Johnson?"

I'll ask, "Well what about Harding?"

They'll ask, "Well what about the other Johnson?"

I'll ask, "Well what about Buchanan?"

They'll ask, "Well what about King George?" 

I'll ask, "Well what about Attila the Hun?" 

They'll ask "Well what about earthquakes and mudslides?" 

I'll ask, "Well what about heart disease and cancer?"

They'll ask, "Well what about serial killers and mass murderers?"

I'll ask, "Well what about famine, war, pestilence and death?"

They'll ask, "Well what about the devil?" 

I'll ask, "Well what about God who is all-powerful and can defeat the Devil?" 

They'll ask, "Well what about you?"

I'll ask, "Well what about you, responding to the point I made?" 

And then maybe we can move forward.

November 2, 2018

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There's a lot of legit criticism of Hillary Clinton, but at least she's not going to court next month for raping a 13-year old. (Not just simply an accusation, the case is actually going to court, with evidence.) If that doesn't bug you, vote for him.

November 2, 2016

Postscript- The accuser dropped the case.

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Emma cut her hand and accidentally smeared some blood on my car door. When I see that every morning it will be a reminder to be positive for the day. (Her blood type is B+.)

November 2, 2014

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Howard Hughes flew the Spruce Goose, the largest fixed-wing aircraft ever built, what is going and only flight, on this day in 1947.

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Norman Morrison, a 31-year-old Quaker, self-immolated himself in front of the Pentagon on this day in 1965, to protest the use of napalm in the Vietnam war.

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Ronald Reagan signed the bill creating Martin Luther King, Jr. Day on this day in 1983. Dick Cheney voted against it!

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Notable birthdays- Daniel Boone (1734), Marie Antoinette (1755), Warren G. Harding (1865), Burt Lancaster (1913)

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George Bernard Shaw left us on this day in 1950.

"Life isn't about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself."

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James Thurber left us on this day in in 1961.

"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility."

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Mississippi John Hurt left us on this day in 1966. You've gotta walk that lonesome valley.

https://youtu.be/85BvT5X6WSo

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Pier Paolo Pasolini left us on this day in 1975.

"If you know that I am an unbeliever, then you know me better than I do myself. I may be an unbeliever, but I am an unbeliever who has a nostalgia for a belief."

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Carl Sagan:

"The hard truth seems to be this: We live in a vast and awesome universe in which, daily, suns are made and worlds destroyed, where humanity clings to an obscure clod of rock. The significance of our lives and our fragile realm derives from our own wisdom and courage. We are the custodians of life’s meaning. We would prefer it to be otherwise, of course, but there is no compelling evidence for a cosmic Parent who will care for us and save us from ourselves. It is up to us."

http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2013/07/08/carl-sagan-meaning-of-life/

November 2, 2013

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Thurber- "It is better to know some of the questions than all of the answers."

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The unreasonable George Bernard Shaw- “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

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Ricky Gervais- "When you're fed up or stressed about life, just remember, you will be dead & forgotten soon, so nothing really matters. Have a great day :)"

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Dalai Lama- "Anger may bring extra energy, but it eclipses the best part of our brain: its rationality. The energy of anger is almost always unreliable."

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Locke- "I have always thought the actions of men the best interpreters of their thoughts."

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Terkel- "You know, 'power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely?' It's the same with powerlessness."

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Campbell- "If you do follow your bliss you put yourself on a kind of track that has been there all the while, waiting for you, and the life that you ought to be living is the one you are living. Follow your bliss and don't be afraid, and doors will open where you didn't know they were going to be."

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Norm Macdonald- "I once walked in on my parents having sex. It was the most embarrassing thirty minutes of my life."

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