PETROV DAY, or The Virtue of Not Following Protocol
PETROV DAY!
On this day in 1983 Soviet Air Force officer Stanislav Petrov identified a report of an incoming nuclear missile as a computer error and not an American first strike.
He had every reason to believe it was an American first strike, and although he was required to report it to his superior, he knew that if he did, Russia would likely launch a full scale attack in retaliation.
So first he correctly identified himself as the key link in the chain toward nuclear annihilation, and second, he took his time and figured out that it was a computer error.
Did he save the world? Very possibly, and by using his own mind vs blindly following protocol. A lesson we can all follow.
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I'm bound for Fairmount, Indiana. Like normal, I brought about 10 times the amount of audiobooks I could possibly listen to.
How to Change Your Mind- Michael Pollen
Bittersweet- Susan Cain
Where Men Win Glory, the Odyssey of Pat Tillman- John Krakauer
Rage- Bob Woodward
Fire and Fury- Michael Wolff
The Best American Short Stories of 2019
The Power of Habit- Charles Duhigg
Open- Andre Agassi
Carnival of Snackery- David Sedaris
Also of note, it looks like I'm driving through Springfield, Ohio later, so I guess I should stop.
The ridiculous thing is that I'm not even going to listen to any of them before I finish Sarah Vowell's Assassination Vacation which I already read.
September 26, 2024
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In case you are interested, brilliant criticism of Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, trump, as always peppered with excellent criticism of the left as well.
https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/383-where-are-the-grown-ups
September 26, 2024
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We crashed a satellite into an asteroid today to see if we could divert its course. Here's the last close-up pic before it crashed.
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Trump gambled and lost a billion dollars in Atlantic City of all places, which feels like a quaint metaphor of what's going on now.
September 26, 2020
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I decided to remove my racing snail's shell to make him go faster. But if anything, it just made him more sluggish.
I just told that joke to Gretel and Zuzu.
Gretel pointed at me and said, "That's not true!"
Zuzu precociously put her hand on her hip, smiled and said, "That's a nice little story."
I explained the joke, and they didn't like it, but then they wanted to memorize it.
Zuzu said she wanted to tell two jokes.
#1- "Both of my buttcheeks are orange."
#2- "Who let the chicken cross the road???"
She got a good chuckle out of each. Then she said she had another.
#3- "Why did the racing snail pick it's nose?"
Gretel chimed in, "Because its slippery boogie made it faster."
Not too good, but better than Zuzu's punchline. Zuzu didn't have a punchline.
I told them another joke- "What's brown and sounds like a bell?"
They gave about 10 ridiculous answer.
"Nope, it's duuuuung."
They didn't get it.
September 26, 2020
Postscript: Now I ask them what's brown and sounds like a bell, and they say, "Everybody knows that!"
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Polls are not perfect but it's absurd to distrust them in principle. I mean come on, they tell us something! If they don't, how did Nate Silver correctly predict 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012? He only missed Indiana by 0.1% in 2008.
What's the alternative to trusting the polls? Driving around and looking at yard signs? Guess what, that's a poll too, just a poll with a sample size so small to make it worthless. Cities tend to go for the Democrat, rural areas tend to go for the Republican, and races are decided by the gray area in between, the suburbs. Elon Musk couldn't afford the gas to conduct a yard sign poll that would include all that.
Want to know how to do a really bad prediction- make a tally who your friends are voting for. Sure you might end up right and think you are a genius, but you would be right for the wrong reason, while the other half would be wrong for the wrong reason. These are the people who get a big head thinking they correctly predicted a coin toss. They're also the type of people who lose a lot of money in Atlantic City, if you know what I mean.
People forget that in 2016 Nate Silver still gave Trump a 30% chance to win, the same chance that Trump's own analysts gave him!
People were certain Clinton was going to win, but I was nervous! Going into election day it was as if rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die would mean Trump would win, where a 3, 4, 5, or 6 meant Clinton would win. People latched onto the Huffington Post giving Clinton a 99% chance to win, but I wasn't fooled.
Was Nate Silver wrong? Not in my judgment. He was using the data to make the best prediction he could. Am I wrong if I say that there is about a 33% chance to roll a 1 or a 2 on a six-sided die?
I had been through the Midwest a month before the last election and my mind was blown over all the yard signs for Trump. Yard signs can help determine enthusiasm, but they can't determine vote totals. Which candidate would you want- the one with the most enthusiasm, or the one who is going to win the most votes?
The fact that Biden beat Bernie means something. Bernie's supporters were more enthusiastic, but there were fewer of them. Trump's supporters tend to be rabid, I'm not sure if you noticed, but that doesn't matter if there are fewer of them. Sorry... to be boringly technical... if there are fewer votes among enough of the Electoral College battleground States. (What a wacky system.)
The Electoral College will tend to mirror the popular vote somewhat. Last time Clinton was polling 3% above Trump nationally, and narrowly missed winning the Electoral College by 80,000 votes between three states. What would that tell us if Biden goes in to the election 4% nationally this time?
Currently Biden is polling about 7% above Trump nationally, which will narrow, but if he goes into election day that far above, his chance of winning the Electoral College will be about 98%. If he goes in tied nationally, Trump would have a heavy advantage with the Electoral College... not a certainty, but an advantage.
It's hard to predict elections with accuracy, but it's not hard to predict the reaction of Trump, and therefore, the majority of his supporters. I can predict it with 100% certainty. If Biden goes in anywhere between 0% to 100% ahead, you'll hear a chorus of, "POLLS WERE WRONG BEFORE!" How far above or below the standard is meaningless to them.
If Trump is up and Biden wins, "BUT POLLS SHOWED TRUMP UP!!!" You might have noticed, any outlier Rasmussen poll, around 50% is held up like a holy chalice. The subtext is loud and clear- "FINALLY SOME PROOF OF WHAT I ALREADY KNOW TO BE TRUE!!!" Bad polls for Trump are fake news hoax witch hunts, whereas 50% polls are gospel.
Using 2016 as a base, if the aggregate of polls show Biden up 3% nationally on election day, it'll be a squeaker for one of them. If Biden is higher, his chances of winning the Electoral College are higher. If he happens to stay up 7%, bet your house he'll win.
What's this analysis worth though? Either Trump wins, or it was rigged, right? You might have heard, Dear Leader already declared himself the winner... the only acceptable option, right?
No, Dear Leader is wrong. Or if he's right, he's right for the wrong reason. We use data to determine what is true and what is not. Post-Enlightenment, we actually know things about the world. We didn't get to the moon on our gut instincts. I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm not getting into any space shuttle designed by Trump!
Let's keep those polls where they are and get rid of this anti-poll, anti-data, anti-democratic nonsense!
September 26, 2020
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Marty Stuart in Ken Burns' Country Music, putting it perfectly:
"It was almost badge of honor that you brought your culture with you to the table. That's why Bob Wills and his guys brought us western music. That's why Hank Williams brought the south with him from honky tonks. That's why Johnny Cash brought blackland dirt of Arkansas. Bill Monroe brought Kentucky bluegrass music. Willie Nelson brought his poetry from Texas. Patsy Cline brought her heartache from Virginia. I mean it was the most wonderful parade of sons and daughters of America that brought their hearts and their souls and their experiences and they gave us a great era of country music."
September 26, 2019
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John Fugelsang- "The POTUS who hired a felon lawyer, felon campaign chair, felon foreign policy adviser, felon deputy campaign mgr, felon NatSec adviser, a 2x alleged wife beater Staff Sec, the most corrupt EPA boss ever AND Omarosa assures you Brett Kavanagh is spectacular."
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Niccolo Machiavelli- “First method of estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.”
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We need to start mandatory lie detector tests with all of these sexual assault allegations... you know, to find out if Republican senators even care about them. Some of them have actually already said out loud that they don't, so they'll be exempt.
September 26, 2018
Postscript: Someone challenged me on that and changed my mind!
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Steven Wright- "I intend to live forever. So far, so good."
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The president said, "I have plenty of time on my hands. All I do is work." I don't know... in my experience the more I work, the less time I have on my hands. (Nearly forgot though, everything is backwards now.)
September 26, 2017
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What's the big deal with this NFL kerfluffle? All they have to do is say please stand for the national anthem, or kneel down to signify your support for the ideals the anthem represents. There you go, done, sorted.
September 26, 2017
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While I'm solving problems, here's another. Make abortions illegal with the only consequence that you have to accept God's punishment. And if he doesn't exist, no punishment. Sorted. Now what else?
September 26, 2017
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Problem-solving tonight. Use all of the bigger guns to shoot all of the smaller guns until there's only one gun left. We'll melt it down and forge it into a Confederate monument condemning violence. Sorted!
September 26, 2017
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If Trump's face was a McDonald's character, it would be Grimace. (Damn, one minute in and I already launched an ad hominem attack.)
September 26, 2016
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I think the one tidbit that encapsulates Trump is the fact that the roasters of his Comedy Central roast in 2011 were allowed to joke about everything except his net worth being lower than he claims. It highlights the Big Lie (repeat something often enough and it becomes known as fact), facade over substance, money as the only thing that matters to him, etc, etc. Hillary is sitting on a goldmine- one well-timed zinger and he could explode into ten-thousand pennies.
September 26, 2016
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Daniel Kahneman- "A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact."
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A 2002 Time Magazine study found that 6% of Americans considered themselves vegetarians BUT 60% of them admitted to eating red meat, chicken, pork or seafood within the previous 24 hours, haha.
September 26, 2014
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Remember to fail and fail often, for without failure there is nothing for us to learn from. So fail about learning from previous failures too, or better yet fail at failing. Or fail at that.
September 26, 2013
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I just invented a good recipe for wine- Trader Joe's concord grape juice and Johnny Walker.
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If you watch one prank video today about a girlfriend getting scared by a fake head in her bed, make it this one.
https://youtu.be/ptpl68MPqCg
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Albert Einstein published the third of his Annus Mirabilis papers on this day in 1905, introducing the special theory of relativity.
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Machine Gun Kelly surrendered to the FBI on this day in 1933 shouting, "Don't shoot, G-Men!" That's how they got their name.
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Abbey Road, the last recorded album by the Beatles, was released on this day in 1969.
HERE COMES THE SUN
Here comes the sun, doo-doo-doo-doo
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's alright
Little darlin', it's been a long, cold, lonely winter
Little darlin', it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun, doo-doo-doo-doo
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's alright
Little darlin', the smile's returning to their faces
Little darlin', it seems like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's alright
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes
Sun, sun, sun, here it comes
Little darlin', I feel that ice is slowly melting
Little darlin', it seems like years since it's been clear
Here comes the sun, doo-doo-doo-doo
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's alright
Here comes the sun, doo-doo-doo-doo
Here comes the sun
It's alright
It's alright
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Archibald Butt, Army officer and aide to presidents Teddy Roosevelt and Taft, was born on this day in 1865. He died on the Titanic. I assume his friends called him "Archie."
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English post, T. S. Eliot, was born on this day in 1888. From Four Quartets:
For last year's words belong to last year's language
And next year's words await another voice.
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Martin Heidegger was born on this day in 1889. Let's forget about his later life problems and take a moment to strictly focus on wisdom.
"Anyone can achieve their fullest potential, who we are might be predetermined, but the path we follow is always of our own choosing. We should never allow our fears or the expectations of others to set the frontiers of our destiny. Your destiny can't be changed but, it can be challenged. Every man is born as many men and dies as a single one."
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Darby Crash of The Germs joined us on this day in 1958, with Volare (Nel blu dipinto di blu) by Domenico Modugno at the top of the charts.
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German mathematician and astronomer, August Ferdinand Möbius, left us on this day in 1868.
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George Santayana left us on this day in 1952.
"Sanity is a madness put to good uses."
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Paul Newman left this one this day in 2008. How could that be? I consider him a fully actualized human being.
"A man with no enemies is a man with no character."
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Brooks Robinson left us today at 86 years old. He was responsible for some otherworldly defense. Pete Rose famously said, "Brooks Robinson belongs in a higher league." Excellent excerpt from Ken Burns' Baseball:
https://youtu.be/1vPn8f5swdk
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Other notable birthdays- Johnny Appleseed (1774), Jim Caviezel (1968), Beto O'Rourke (1972), Serena Williams (1981)
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Other notable deathdays- Daniel Boone (1820), Bessie Smith (1937)
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New York Times Editorial Board- Why Donald Trump Should Not Be President
"Voters attracted by the force of the Trump personality should pause and take note of the precise qualities he exudes as an audaciously different politician: bluster, savage mockery of those who challenge him, degrading comments about women, mendacity, crude generalizations about nations and religions. Our presidents are role models for generations of our children. Is this the example we want for them?"
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/26/opinion/why-donald-trump-should-not-be-president.html
September 26, 2016
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US Uncut- Surgeon General Warns That Drinking Every Time Trump Lies During Debate Will Result In Acute Alcohol Poisoning
http://usuncut.com/news/surgeon-general-warns-drinking-every-time-trump-lies-debate-result-acute-alcohol-poisoning/
September 26, 2016
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The Hill- Trump to visit hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico
I suppose a good thing about the president is that he never lets you go more than a day without forcing you to re-realize what a dingbat he is.
“We’ve gotten A-pluses on Texas and in Florida, and we will also on Puerto Rico. But the difference is this is an island sitting in the middle of an ocean. It’s a big ocean, it’s a very big ocean. And we’re doing a really good job.”
http://hill.cm/Btey4DQ
September 26, 2017
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Huffington Post- Seal Slaps Kayaker In The Face With Octopus Because Nature Is Completely Unhinged
That headline cheered me up.
http://huffp.st/oegLNbz
September 26, 2018
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Second Nexus- We Now Know the Real Reason Those PA Military Ballots Were Discarded—and Trump Supported It All Along
Nevertheless... no matter who the vote is for, I believe that if the will of the voter can be determined, that should supercede everything. Count those 9 for Trump, there's no question they were for him. Those hanging chads in FL... come on, if they knew who the vote was for, they should have counted it. A chad hanging for Gore, certainly wasn't for Bush! We can't lose sight of the basic thing. If you go to the ATM and hit the wrong password, they don't empty your account. Let's use some sense. Try the password again. Let those votes count.
https://secondnexus.com/pennsylvania-ballots-trump-privacy-envelopes
September 26, 2020
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Santayana again- "Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it."
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David Foster Wallace, This Is Water- "The really important kind of freedom involves attention, and awareness, and discipline, and effort, and being able truly to care about other people and to sacrifice for them, over and over, in myriad petty little unsexy ways, every day."
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Jack Kerouac- "My whole wretched life swam before my weary eyes, and I realized no matter what you do it's bound to be a waste of time in the end so you might as well go mad."
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Jed Mckenna- "We’re all afloat in a boundless sea, and the way we cope is by massing together in groups and pretending in unison that the situation is other than it is. We reinforce the illusion for each other. That’s what a society really is, a little band of humanity huddled together against the specter of a pitch black sea."
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"Every triangle is a love triangle when you love triangles." -Pythagoras, if only
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Hemingway- "Critics are men who watch a battle from a high place and then come down to shoot the survivors."
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Heidegger again, "If I take death into my life, acknowledge it, and face it squarely, I will free myself from the anxiety of death and the pettiness of life - and only then will I be free to become myself."
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T.S. Eliot again- "Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go."
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Santayana, yet again- "The world is not respectable; it is mortal, tormented, confused, deluded forever; but it is shot through with beauty, with love, with glints of courage and laughter; and in these, the spirit blooms timidly, and struggles to the light amid the thorns."
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Shel Silverstein, Every Thing on It:
There are no happy endings.
Endings are the saddest part,
So just give me a happy middle
And a very happy start.
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Dr. Seuss, Fox in Socks:
When beetles fight these battles in a bottle with their paddles
and the bottle's on a poodle and the poodle's eating noodles...
...they call this a muddle puddle tweetle poodle beetle noodle
bottle paddle battle.
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Freud- "Where does a thought go when it's forgotten?"
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Michel de Montaigne- "The great and glorious masterpiece of man is to live with purpose."
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Stephen King, The Body:
Am I weird?"
"Yeah. But so what? Everybody's weird.
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Louis C.K.- "I love being white. Seriously, I really do. If you're not white, your missing out. 'Cuz this shit is thoroughly good. Let me clear this up by the way: I'm not saying white people are better. I'm saying that BEING white is clearly better. Who could even argue? If it was an option I would re-up every year! 'Oh yeah, I'll take white again. Absolutely.' Here's how great it is to be white: if I would have a time machine I could go to any time and it would be awesome when I get there! That is exclusively a white privilege! Black people can't fuck with time machines!"
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I can't imagine I'll ever read it, but Big Machine by Victor LaValle has a fantastic first sentence!
“Don’t look for dignity in public bathrooms.”
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